December 2023

Welcome to the latest edition of the 2023 On the Horizon newsletter from the Future Workforce Unit (FWU). On the Horizon provides a snapshot of the key trends and developments that have the potential to shape and impact our future workforce, workplace and ways of working.

On the Horizon is part of the Focus on the Future Workforce Initiative, which aims to support the health system to ensure a resilient and digitally enabled workforce that can adapt to the changes in the system caused by technology and other disruptions. By focusing on not just the now, but also the future, NSW Health can ensure that we meet the needs of the community now and into the future.

Please note that the opinions shared in On the Horizon are those of the respective authors, and may not reflect the views of FWU or NSW Health.

Aboriginal & Torres Strait Islander readers are advised that this edition may contain images of people who have passed away.

As we fast approach the end of 2023, the Future Workforce Unit has reflected on some of our biggest achievements over the past year. At the top of the list is the establishment of the FWU in June, strengthening our focus on exploring the future of work and leading strategic workforce planning across our health system.

2023 also saw the release of Future Health Podcast Series 4 and a return of the NSW Health Futures Musters. We also published the NSW Health Workforce Plan Supplementary Guide to support guidance for delivery of the Health Workforce Plan, designed a prototype student pipeline dashboard workforce planning tool, and developed a Workforce Planning Training package to be piloted for the genomics workforce in 2024.

More recently, FWU hosted its inaugural Leading for Innovation Alumni Event in November, where we reconnected with program participants and learned about the Quadruple Helix from Courtney Molloy and Jennie McGhie from Central Coast Innovation Districts, and radical leadership with Brad Twynham.

In this year's final edition of On the Horizon, we explore trends including care at home, the ageing population, and robotics may impact the future workforce. I encourage you to use the questions included to prompt further conversations with your peers and networks to explore what these trends could mean for your future context.

I want to take a moment to express my gratitude for your ongoing support of On the Horizon and FWU's work. Our door is always open, so I encourage you to reach out to the team at MOH-WorkforceHorizonsScanning@health.nsw.gov.au if you'd like to connect and chat about the future of work or would like some support from our team.

Finally, I will leave you with a quote from Brad Twynham's book Radical Leadership: "We need leaders who can focus on bringing everyone together and creating a community environment where everyone solves problems and moves together." (radical thinking)

- Tamara Lee

Director, Future Workforce

Robotics

In April 2023, the Australian Government launched a discussion paper on the development of a new National Robotics Strategy to promote the responsible production and adoption of robotics and automation technologies.

In recent years, the healthcare industry has witnessed significant advancements in robotic technology that have the potential to transform how surgeries are performed, streamline supply delivery and disinfection, address skills shortages and improve the patient experience.

As with many technologies, the introduction of robotics and automation will change the way we work. Growing an agile, innovative and diverse workforce with strong technological skills will be vital in the development robotics technology and to support the adoption of these technologies.

The success of the robotics ecosystem in Australia depends on ensuring public trust and support of robotics and automation. For the opportunities of robotics and automation to be realised, the development and adoption of these technologies needs to accord with settings promoting trustworthy, ethical and responsible use. Robots are best used when completing tasks that are repetitive, dangerous, unhygienic or require precision. Human touch, empathy and interaction remain vital in patient care, so the role of robotics will involve working alongside instead of replacing humans.

Ageing population

According to the Department of the Treasury’s Intergenerational Report 2023, population ageing is one of the major forces shaping Australia’s future. Australians are expected to continue living longer with more years in full health, while having fewer children. It is important to note that these national trends are likely to vary for different demographics and in different areas of the country. The report also argues that the ageing population will have significant workforce impacts, with the size of the workforce relative to the dependent population will also fall as the population ages.

According to the Intergenerational Report 2023, while Australians are staying healthier for longer, the number of years lived in ill-health has also increased, which has contributed to demand and cost for health and aged care services. However, in its report on how ageing affects health and care need in England, the Health Foundation explains that the relationship between age, health and social care need is changing and that an ageing population doesn’t necessarily lead to comparable increases in the number of people with care needs. In fact, the reality is more nuanced as is still unclear to whether this relationship remains unchanged, or to what extent the effects of our ageing population are at least partly offset by an increasingly health older generation.

With longer life expectancies translating into more years of full health, it will also be easier for older Australians to participate in the workforce longer, if desired, and provide mentorship to younger generations. Understanding and addressing the complex and often conflicting needs of a multigenerational workforce will be crucial for organisations in supporting staff as generational gaps widen into the future.

A recent report from Demos explains that hundreds of thousands of older workers in the UK are at risk of leaving the workforce due to a range of factors such as a lack of access to flexible working, lack of support for those workers made redundant, ill health or disability, poor experiences of work and age discrimination. Further increasing employment opportunities and reducing employment barriers for people from historically underrepresented groups, women, and older Australians who may wish to work more, may help offset the effects of ageing on workforce participation. Employers can make themselves more attractive to older workers by being more flexible about when and where they work, and providing training and development to ensure skillsets remain up to date. This will help realise the potential older workers have to offer.

Care at home

The home care industry has changed fundamentally in recent decades, and its diverse domains have been rapidly evolving within the healthcare ecosystem. From technological advancements and innovative treatments to evolving regulations and shifting patient needs, the home care sector is intricately dynamic, having to continuously adapt to meet the demands of modern healthcare. Care delivery at home includes post-acute care (also called “hospital in the home”), outpatient care, personal care, including private nurses and non-medical care, telehealth and end-of-life, or hospice care.

Healthcare Channel reports that global demand for healthcare is expected to reach $300 billion by 2026. According to NEJM Catalyst, the demand for home- and community-based care will intensify across the world as populations age and technological advancements support innovative delivery approaches. In particular, AI and machine learning are expected to play a pivotal role in reshaping the next decade of the home care sector and improving outcomes and experiences for patients.

An article from NEJM Catalyst shared Care at Home insights from senior health leaders, who argue that a workforce capable of responding to new ways of delivery care will be crucial to achieving the full potential of care at home. For instance, care at home requires an interdisciplinary and expanded clinical team with everyone working at the top of their license, augmented by emerging digital and analytic technologies. The article provides an outline of senior health leaders’ views on workforce impacts of care at home: “This has profound implications for what the workforce of the future looks like and what will be needed to deliver comprehensive, person-centered care. At the same time, the pandemic exacerbated workforce shortages, which underscored the urgency of investing in a more productive and diverse health care labor force. While long-term support is needed to rectify the gap between worker supply and demand, there are priority actions that health system leaders can take to bolster the workforce in the near term and equip the labor force to support Care Without an Address.”