March 2025

Welcome to the latest edition of the 2025 On the Horizon newsletter from the Future Workforce Unit (FWU). On the Horizon provides a snapshot of the key trends and developments that have the potential to shape and impact our future workforce, workplace and ways of working.

On the Horizon is part of the Focus on the Future Workforce Initiative, which aims to support the health system to ensure a resilient and digitally enabled workforce that can adapt to the changes in the system caused by technology and other disruptions. By focusing on not just the now, but also the future, NSW Health can ensure that we meet the needs of the community now and into the future.

Please note that the opinions shared in On the Horizon are those of the respective authors, and may not reflect the views of FWU or NSW Health.

Aboriginal & Torres Strait Islander readers are advised that the articles may contain images of people who have passed away.

“Foresight is a matter of studying the present, learning from the past, and understanding the needs of the future.” – Dr. Mahathir Bin Mohamad, Author and former Prime Minister of Malaysia.

At its core, foresight is about imagining the future, especially in times of uncertainty when clarity is most needed. It allows us to think beyond the obvious, encouraging creative exploration of opportunities and challenges. This process helps us set a strategic direction and take meaningful action. A key part of this is developing scenarios, which is a focus of ours in this edition of On the Horizon.

To inspire you in thinking creatively about the future of health, we’ve created a video that invites you to imagine the work, the workplace, and the workforce in 2040 and beyond. We invite you to take a moment to immerse yourself in this vision of the future and consider what NSW Health might look like two decades from now. Let your mind open to the possibilities ahead. You can watch the video on our website.

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In this edition of On the Horizon, we’ve used scenarios to help shape future visioning. We dive into trends such as digital health for ageing populations, Australians' trust in AI, and how we can stay ahead – and hopeful – amid an environment of global risks and volatility.

As you explore these trends, I encourage you to use the questions provided as a starting point for discussions with your peers. Together, we can explore what these changes might mean for your local context and how we can prepare for the future.

- Tamara Lee

Director, Future Workforce

Digital health for ageing populations: What the future could hold

Imagine it’s 2035: residential homes of older adults are equipped with connected sensors that monitor health. Foot sensors track gait, motion sensors detect falls, smart fridges monitor diet, and smart mirrors scan for health changes. These devices gather data, analysed by algorithms to identify risks. Smart pillboxes manage medications, and social robots provide companionship. Remote caregivers receive real-time updates, coordinating care through autonomous devices to enhance wellbeing and independence (this scenario is based on a research article highlighting the potential of digital health innovations to transform care for ageing populations).

By 2050, the number of people aged 65 and over is expected to match the number of children under 12 and exceed twice the number of children under 5. With an ageing population and a shrinking caregiver workforce, healthcare systems will face significant pressure. To address this, there is a growing demand for digital health innovations tailored to older adults, shifting the focus from merely prolonging life to improving quality of life.

Digital tools like wearables and home sensors are already being used to support healthy ageing while maintaining autonomy and safety at home. These technologies help address challenges such as reduced physical and cognitive function, chronic conditions, and social isolation. With high processing power, they collect and transmit medical data for analysis by healthcare providers. Coupled with advanced communication technologies, they enable cost-effective remote healthcare for monitoring older adults at home. With further validation, these devices are expected to become key tools in future diagnostics, improving health outcomes for older adults.

In the Australian aged care sector, the use of data is both essential and complex. The 2021 Royal Commission into Aged Care Quality and Safety (The Commission) identified significant gaps in data collection, usage, and sharing, highlighting the need for standardisation. A recent report from CSIRO highlights emerging priorities aimed at advancing data use in aged care, with a particular focus on enhancing interoperability. It aims to guide those involved in the sector on the challenges and opportunities for enhancing the efficiency of data use, aligning with recommendation 108 of The Commission to ensure data is "collected once and used many times."

How can we, as a workforce, adapt and prepare for these technological changes? What strategic partnerships could emerge between tech companies and healthcare providers in advancing healthy ageing digital solutions?

How much do we trust AI?

The global AI business is experiencing a surge. AI-powered voice recognition tools for clinical notetaking are being used across health systems such as Heidi by Headi Health and Smart Scribe by Telstra Health. China will debut the world’s first AI hospital later this year, an app store has been launched for healthcare AI agents allowing clinicians to create AI agents for patient care and operational challenges, and the U.S. Stargate Project plans to invest $500 billion in AI infrastructure for OpenAI over the next four years. For some, as AI rapidly evolves, it might feel like a runaway train. So, what’s the level of trust Australians have in AI?

A 2023 study by the University of Queensland and KPMG found that Australians, like other Western countries, have significant concerns about AI. Less than half trust AI at work, with only a minority believing its benefits outweigh the risks. Trust varies by age and education: 42% of Gen X and Millennials trust AI, compared to just 25% of older Australians, and 42% of university-educated individuals trust AI, compared to 27% without a degree. Australians also showed less interest in learning about AI compared to other countries.

Public trust plays a role in this, particularly regarding government use of AI. According to a report by the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet How might artificial intelligence affect the trustworthiness of public service delivery? trust in public services increased during the pandemic with programs like JobSeeker and JobKeeper, but the Robodebt scheme highlighted how poor policy design can erode trust, as per the report. Though Robodebt involved algorithmic decision-making rather than AI, its fallout will likely shape perceptions of digital technologies, including AI, for years.

As AI continues to evolve, its successful adoption depends on responsible use. Tools and frameworks exist to support the responsible use of AI (and some are included below), ensuring it enhances efficiency and delivers better outcomes. However, poor implementation can erode public trust, hinder innovation, and slow adoption, ultimately impacting the effectiveness of services.

So, imagine its 2040: as healthcare faces workforce shortages, human-machine collaboration is the norm. Sam, a nurse, now relies on AI-powered robots for routine tasks like monitoring vital signs and entering data, allowing them to focus on patient care – comforting families and supporting patients through treatments. Governments worldwide have set regulations to ensure AI supports, not replaces, workers like Sam, and organisations invest in training to help workers collaborate confidently with AI, creating safe, efficient workplaces (this scenario is based on this resource which explores how AI could transform job roles, workplace dynamics, and society through four different scenarios).

What measures can be implemented to ensure that AI solutions in healthcare are developed and adopted with ethical standards, transparency, and empathy towards both patients and healthcare providers? How can the healthcare workforce be better equipped with the necessary skills and training to effectively work alongside AI tools? How can we address the generational divide in trust towards AI and ensure all feel confident in using these technologies?

Staying ahead – and hopeful – amid an environment of global risks and volatility

The Global Risks Report for 2025, recently released by the World Economic Forum, serves as a stark reminder that the road to 2035 will be challenging to navigate. As we enter 2025, the global outlook is becoming more divided across geopolitical, environmental, societal, economic, and technological areas. Over the past year, conflicts have escalated, extreme weather events have worsened due to climate change, and political polarisation has deepened, with technology contributing to the spread of misinformation.

Optimism is in short supply, as the risk of miscalculations by political and military leaders remains high. The Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) reflects this uncertainty, with 52% of respondents predicting an unsettled global outlook for the next two years, a slight increase from last year. Looking ahead 10 years, 62% expect turbulent or stormy times, highlighting a lack of faith in current institutions to manage the risks we face.

So, why focus on the doom and gloom of the next decade? Wouldn’t it be easier – and better for us – to simply ignore it?

The reality is that while the risks outlined in the report may seem overwhelming, ignoring them won’t make them go away. In fact, the current and short-term risks we face may only become more severe as we approach 2035 – unless we act on the foresight provided today. The report outlines the critical importance of collaboration, dialogue, and proactive engagement among all stakeholder groups in order to create a more promising future.

As the world faces these mounting risks, healthcare systems must adapt to the growing pressures of a rapidly changing world. But how can we stay ahead of the curve in mitigating the effects of these global risks? In the November edition of On the Horizon, we explore various resources that support foresight activities, helping us better understand and prepare for the future.

How can we better equip ourselves, our teams, and our communities to anticipate and respond to the global risks that lie ahead? How can we maintain hope and resilience in the face of global challenges and use these challenging times as an opportunity to drive meaningful change and innovation?